2016 Political Games: A Contested Convention?
By Jan Halper-Hayes, Ph.D.
Note to Readers: Previously published in US Embassy Ex-pat Magazine April 2016. I have added what transpired after the convention to give you a tiny window into the initial feelings about Candidate Trump’s potential GOP nomination and the subsequent backroom dealings.
BEHIND THE SCENES AT THE 2016 RNC SPRING MEETING
As of this writing on the 19th of April 2016, the current possibility of a contested GOP convention remains up in the air. Trump is likely the only one who could possibly secure the nomination by June 7th, 2016. Thus, if he achieves the most delegates, everything I write here will be moot. Of course, the only truism of American politics is to wait a week or two and everything will change.
So, in this article I intend to provide you with three things: 1) an historical perspective on contested conventions; 2) understanding of how the rules will develop for the 2016 convention; and 3) the most up-to-date news on how the infighting has moved from the campaigns to a fight inside the GOP.
Last week, as I listened to the pundits’ pontificate about the possibility of a contested GOP convention, they limited their remarks and hypotheticals to one significant rule: Rule 40b. In their 10, 20, or 30 second soundbites, these supposed experts and reporters were misleading the public.
These talking heads had not done their homework. The pundits justified their interpretations based on the rules from and for the 2012 Convention. At the January 2013 RNC meeting, the first of 3 annual meetings, the various RNC committees began the deep dive, determining which of the 2012 Convention rules to carry forth and which to discard. Fast forward to the final RNC meeting before the Convention.
The 2016 Convention rules need approval from the RNC State members at the Convention. That did not stop the liberal windbags making prognostications. Whether one watched CNN, ABC, NBC or Fox, the excitement of a possible contested convention weighed more on their thoughts than realising their role is to educate the public. Or at least begin with and then provide accurate information.
Historical Context of Contested Conventions
An open convention, sometimes referred to as a contested convention, occurs when no single candidate has secured the most delegates. A delegate is determined by the popular vote in each State. On the first vote, a delegate cannot switch allegiance to another candidate. However, after a specified number of rounds of voting, if no candidate has secured the nomination, the delegates are no longer bound to the original candidate they represented. In general, unbound delegates are not bound to a specific candidate and can support any candidate of their choosing, however, this varies by state party rules.
Before the era of presidential primary elections, both the DNC and GOP held brokered Conventions. Decisions as to the nominee had been made in backrooms and controlled by party bosses. The introduction of primaries began the process of putting the decision in voters’ hands.
In 1924, Democratic candidate John W. Davis secured the nomination on the 103rd ballot. In 1952, Adlai Stevenson (D) and Dwight Eisenhower (R) were the most recent "brokered convention" presidential nominees of their respective parties. In 1948, Thomas Dewey became the nominee after the 3rd ballot. Yet, in 1940, Dewey came into the convention with the most delegates. However, after 6 ballots, Wendell Wilkie, who came into the convention with 11 percent of delegates and switched from being a Democrat the year before. The nomination went to Wilkie.
Reports of the 1976 GOP Convention having been a contested one are false. It was kinda, sorta, an ‘almost’ contested convention between sitting President Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan. But Ford was able to win the nomination on the first ballot.
If it were not for the ‘Donald’, the NeverTrump organisers and the GOP Establishment suffering from such wilful blindness, this issue, played out in real time, would probably not have rated much interest to the public. With Congress’ approval rating in single digits, it is the insurgency candidates in both parties who have excited voters in the election process. More votes, throughout the 2016 primary season, were casted for anti-establishment candidates as evidenced by 14 of the 17 GOP candidates who were forced to suspend the campaigns.
The belief that voters have their say in the primaries has been a long-held belief, but behind the scenes, brokering is alive and well. As much as voters abhor the thought that their vote will not count, should this become a contested Convention, the outcome will not be good. Because GOP and DNC Establishments think they know better than the voters, they can’t help themselves but attempt to interfere. Senator Ted Cruz predicts possible revolts from the delegates. Trump predicts riots if the popular vote is disregarded, and the Establishment put in someone of their choosing.
Convention Rules
Hypothetically predicting whether we will have an open convention is entertaining to say the least. Yet, when the media pundits and reporters focus on one rule, taken out of context, from which to make their poetic prognostications, the public are ill-served.
Since January 2014, I have had the opportunity to observe the RNC Rules Committee 3 times a year. At each meeting, they have strategically analysed the strengths and weaknesses of both the primary and convention processes.
For example, for the 2016 Presidential primaries they instituted strict rules governing when and how the primaries will take place. If a State violated any of the rules set forth, the State was at risk of losing a percentage of their delegates. For the first time in 20 years, based on four previous election cycles, every State will be fully represented at the convention.
To refute all the contradictory information reported by the media regarding the supposed open convention, Republicans Overseas organised a call with our 51 Country Leaders and their membership to receive the inside story from: RNC Rules Committee Chairman Bruce Ash and Special Counsel to the RNC James Bopp, Jr.
In summary, the RNC Rules Committee meets 3 times a year. The 56 members of the Rules Committee review the rules that have worked, those that haven’t and make decisions to introduce new rules, suspend other ones or eliminate those that no longer have relevance. Once the 56 members agree on proposed resolutions, the 168 RNC members can challenge any of the proposed changes. At this point, the 168 members, the entire body of the RNC, vote to accept or reject any of the rules.
Moving onto the procedures for developing the rules for the 2016 convention. The Convention Rules Committee (CRC) comprised of RNC members and delegates is conceptually a straightforward process. The RNC Rules Committee presents the foundation package to the 2016 CRC, at which time the sitting committee delegates will vote to accept the rules. Likely, as in past conventions, there will be motions to amend, suspend, or add rules. The Rules 26-42 are the ones which govern the convention. Historically, any of these rules might receive motions for changes. Not simply rule 40b as has the media has incessantly claimed.
Once the CRC approves the proposed 2016 Convention rules, the entire Convention delegation of 2472 delegates vote to approve.
Tyranny Inside the GOP
On Thursday, April 21st, 2016, Oregon Committeeman Solomon Yue, will ask the RNC Rules Committee to consider a proposal. Mr. Yue’s motion provides a solution for creating complete transparency of the nomination process and limits the Establishment’s ability to highjack the convention and ultimately, the nomination process. He, along with members of the RNC Rules Committee, believe that if the 2016 RNC Convention is governed by the 1500-page House (as in House of Representatives) rule book, that decision could create a revolt by the delegates, especially those representing Mr. Trump and Senator Cruz will revolt.
In contrast to the House rule book, every GOP State Party conduct their business based on Roberts Rules of Order. All State Chairmen and every State Committeeman and Committeewoman (RNC insists on equal representation) elections are based on Roberts Rules of Order. There are approximately 5 people who understand the House’s 1500 pages of rules; one of whom is RNC Special Counsel James Bopp. Jr.
In short, the House rules give enormous leeway for the presiding convention Chairman to disregard the will of the delegates and disregard the established convention rules after the 1st or 2nd ballot. Under Roberts rules, when balloting starts, the nomination process closes. Under the House rule book, the presiding Convention Chairman (expected to be Paul Ryan), can literally ignore any of Rules 24-42 which govern the convention or the nominating process.
The intention of Mr. Yue’s motion is to establish absolute transparency in the nomination process and to prevent the Establishment from committing a sin that could potentially destroy the Republican Party. He believes that the grassroots have spoken. To totally disregard the votes of the people will bring about chaos and destruction.
Over the past week or two, Mr. Trump has complained about how this system is rigged. This has forced RNC Chairman Reince Preibus to explain to the public the ‘rules’ which have governed the primary process and to deny these accusations. Chairman Preibus asked Committeeman Solomon Yue to table his motion. Preibus thought any other rule changes would create more controversy.
This request, along with subsequent emails to Rules Chairman Bruce Ash has prompted overwhelming media attention. Mr. Ash has accused the RNC Chairman and RNC Legal Counsel John Rider of tyranny and breach of trust.
There is supposition that since Reince Preibus and Paul Ryan grew up together, the goal is for the Establishment to control who becomes the ultimate nominee. Despite their wilful blindness, their rejection of reality, their negation of the dysfunctional governmental system, the Establishment’s perseverance to put the candidate of their choice as the nominee is in the works.
Will this destroy the RNC? Create a new political party? Or, if Trump secures the needed majority, will this infighting have left such bad blood that nothing will unite the GOP?
Added content on September 27, 2023:
Oh, Reince Preibus and Paul Ryan, the former college roommates, failed to install the Congressional House rule book for the Convention.
But that didn’t stop them from searching for a way to oust the new nominee.
On August 3rd, 2016, during an interview with BBC radio’s Today Show I made a comment that angered some people. Nominee Candidate Trump had defied every norm, criteria, behind-kissing campaign playbook. He was triumphant but had been behaving a bit erratically. As a psychologist I was troubled Trump was behaving, as I literally said, “unhinged, coming across psychologically unbalanced.”
It distressed me greatly, as I had known ‘The Donald’ while living in New York City. He had on occasion shot himself in the foot, as the saying goes.
As an incessant fact finder, I set forth calling my colleagues at the RNC. Their disclosures provided me with the machinations of Establishment Elites. In particular, the donor class revolted. The voters had usurped their power to control the nomination process.
In turn, the pressure was mounting on RNC Chairman Preibus to do something to get control and exert the will of those who funded the RNC. Their previous attempt to force a contested convention at the April 2016 RNC Committee meeting had failed.
Both David Bossie, an RNC Committeeman from Maryland, and Corey Lewendowski, the former campaign manager, publicly challenged these attempts to oust Trump. Thus, the expression “Let Trump be Trump” became the mantra.
On August 18th, 2016, sent a radio car to my locale as I couldn’t get to the studio. During that interview I explained to the public that my previous comments held true, as that was my interpretation of Trump’s behaviour at the time.
However, I had full confidence in Trump for three reasons. One, RNC Chairman Preibus had attempted to put the kibosh on Trump’s hard-earned nomination. Preibus was practically begging Trump to drop out as the inner circle “knew” he couldn’t win the election.
Because Trump had garnered the nomination, historically, the Nominee becomes dependent upon the RNC, the State GOP parties, and above all, the Donor Class for campaign financing.
Trump’s erratic pronouncements centered from his attempt to deal with erratic and incessant pressure.
Trump, struggling with the RNC demands, and his inexperienced campaign staff knew they needed the RNC machine to win the general election.
Reasons two and three, were the factors that brought calm to Trump and the campaign staff. Trump hired pollster par excellence, Kellyanne Conway to be his campaign manager and Steve Bannon as campaign chairman.
With the new edict, “Let Trump be Trump”, Preibus had no choice. The Trump machine had firmly seized the reigns. The RNC and its supporters would no longer dictate the marching orders.
The MSM attempted to use my August 18th comments to discredit me. They failed. They ignored the details, the facts that influenced my comments during both interviews. And, as is typical of their need to promote only the negatives, one can find my August 3rd radio interview, but not the one from August 18th.
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About:Dr. Jan Halper-Hayes is an internationally recognized strategic change and leadership expert, media commentator, best-selling author, and sought-after speaker. Over the past 30 years, Jan has become the go-to expert working with Boards and senior executives to ensure their proposed mergers/acquisitions avoid the typical pitfalls–resulting in her clients becoming the leaders in their fields.
The international bestseller, “QUIET DESPERATION: The Truth About Successful Men”, is a provocative study based on interviews with over 4,000 male executives and 43 in-depth profiles spanning over two years. Her work challenges the very fabric of what we have believed to be the successful male prototype, as well as enlightened us about what successful men value in their personal and professional lives.
